New AI Model Could Predict Your Future Health

According to findings that were recently published in the journal Nature, a newly developed AI model could soon be used to predict the health status of people in just the same way that weather forecasts are done. This model has been trained to forecast the likely health conditions that an individual could face up to 10 years in future.

Just as weather forecasters can predict the likelihood of rain with 70% accuracy, so can this new system predict what your health will be like within the coming decade.

The purpose of the team behind this AI system is to identify patients facing a high risk of developing certain diseases. Such patients can then be advised to take needed precautionary measures, such as implementing dietary/lifestyle changes and undergoing routine screening at a frequency that isn’t currently recommended for the general population, or even undergoing medical interventions geared at averting or stalling a condition. The model can also help hospitals to plan ahead for the workloads they will face as the caseloads for different diseases shift.

For example, a hospital can use the system to forecast the caseload of heart attacks and make the needed preparations to handle those patients when the time comes rather than being overwhelmed when the disease incidence grows without a mechanism to make timely proactive preparations for handling the patients.

Delphi-2M, as the model is called, was trained using data taken from the UK Biobank on 400,000 individuals. Thereafter, the performance of the model was tested using nearly two million medical records of individuals in Denmark.

From the tests, the researchers found that the model was very good at predicting the likely health conditions people could suffer from. For example, they found that if the model said an individual had a 1-in-10 likelihood of developing a certain disease within the coming year, those odds actually played out as the model had predicted.

The developers revealed that their model was best at forecasting disease that had clear patterns of progression, such as sepsis, heart attacks and Type 2 diabetes. It isn’t good at predicting conditions that develop randomly, such as infections.

One current limitation of the model is that it relied on data taken from people within the 40-70 age bracket, and this may make it hard for the model to be used for the entire population. The team plans on further fine-tuning the model and then conducting clinical trials before it can be available for use by health systems and individuals.

What is clear at this point is that AI is making further inroads into consumer-facing products and solutions. This isn’t surprising given the way firms like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) have succeeded in leveraging similar technologies in consumer products like wearables that can track different parameters of one’s current health. We are going from simply tracking biomarkers to predicting future disease risk.

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